Moody’s Analytics, a leader in risk measurement and management, and CoreLogic, Australia’s leading property data, analytics and market insights company, forecast that home value growth will likely slow across Australia in 2016, following two years of exceptional home value appreciation and double-digit growth in many areas.
This forecast is based on the new CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Forecast Home Value Index, launched today, which provides a quarterly projection of the trend of residential home values across the country over the next 10 years. Forecasts are updated monthly to help market participants identify opportunities and manage risk exposures.
“We are excited to partner with Moody’s Analytics to launch this Forecast Index to provide a unique and critical perspective on Australia’s most valuable asset class, currently valued in excess of $6.4 trillion AUD,” said Craig Mackenzie, CoreLogic EGM, Banking & Finance.
“On the outlook for the housing market nationally, we expect house price appreciation to slow in 2016. Our forecast reflects lower income growth as the Australian economy transitions away from mining-related investment, as well as the strong build-up of housing supply over the past two years,” said Alaistair Chan, a Sydney-based economist based at Moody’s Analytics.
“Nevertheless, accommodative policy, robust rental growth, and a recovering labour market are expected to support valuations over the medium term,” adds Chan. The CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Forecast Home Value Index currently includes forecasts at a capital city and rest-of-state level.
“Conditions in Melbourne are again expected to outperform Sydney this year, with values forecast to rise by 7.2% in 2016, before slipping back to just 1.3% growth in 2017,” said CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless.
While the pace of house price appreciation is forecast to slow in Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin this year, there is expected to be some pick-up in growth in the remaining capital cities. Hobart, in particular, stands out for better price growth.
For media enquiries:
About Moody's Analytics
Moody’s Analytics helps capital markets and risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. The company offers unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management. By providing leading-edge software, advisory services, and research, including the proprietary analysis of Moody’s Investors Service, Moody’s Analytics integrates and customizes its offerings to address specific business challenges. Moody's Analytics is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO), which reported revenue of $3.5 billion in 2015, employs approximately 10,400 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 36 countries. Further information is available at www.moodysanalytics.com.
CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX),which is the largest property data and analytics company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New Zealand and Asia, and recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity and building cost information provider Cordell. With Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the company’s combined data offering is derived from public, contributory and proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed coverage of property and other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information.
With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics and related services to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance, developers, wealth management and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. CoreLogic employs over 650 people across Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call 1300 734 318 or visit www.corelogic.com.au.