After the high prices of early 2022 comes a downturn being experienced across most of the country. CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index recorded another 1% fall in January 2023, on top of a 1.1% fall in December.
Although the rate of decline seems to be moderating, the HVI has slid 8.9% from the peak recorded in April 2022. Rising interest rates and higher household costs due to inflation are expected to continue to impact borrowing capacity and housing demand.
In volatile market conditions, demand for valuations continues with even greater need for data-driven, responsive solutions. Lenders using Automated Valuation Model (AVM) estimates as part of their valuation mix benefit from reduced approval times and costs.
Key improvements made to our AVM
CoreLogic constantly reviews and improves the AVM model and data feeds. This dedication to continuous improvement is ongoing, to ensure we keep up with changing times, demands and conditions.
Already in 2023, we have liberated over 50,000 data points to improve AVM performance by up to 9%, keeping the model current with market activity and increasing its reactiveness to sharp changes.
The significant uplift was possible by utilising:
- Auction listings for properties that had recent prior auctions.
- Text mining on price descriptions to capture price signals.
Our data science team assessed the changes for inclusion in the AVM, and back-tested against 12 months’ worth of sales and valuations, with great results:
- 8-9% increase in within 10% accuracy when benchmarked against sales.
- 1-2% increase in within 10% accuracy when benchmarked against valuations.
- 2-3% increase in within FSD metric.
- 2-3% reduction in over-valuation.
These latest improvements come on the heels of a raft of changes made since Q4 of 2021. These include:
- Changes to the model indexation methodology. The formula has been adjusted with greater weighting towards most recent sales – making the model more reactive to changes in market direction.
- AVM sub-model updates. The regression sub-model has been updated with the indexed sale price as the new target variable.
- Inclusion of undisclosed sales data. This is used as inputs to model calculations. While data informs the model, it can't be seen by the public.
- Ingestion of more property data. We lead the market, with a diverse and unique property ecosystem, incorporating listings, government feeds and valuations. More lenders have agreed to contribute their property datasets into the model, with the most recent round of additional data added in July 2022, enhancing the ongoing data feed.
Judging from the enhanced performance already seen, it is predicted these improvements will increase accuracy by 2% from undisclosed sales, and 1% for valuations.
Enhanced AVM features now available
As part of our commitment to unlocking AVM improvements, upgraded features are also now available.
Following extensive research, gathering quarterly feedback from customers and partners, key areas have been refined to expand the AVM’s property universe and enrich its attributes.
Changes reflect user need for improved accuracy, scalability, speed and reactivity to the market, along with an increase of useable AVMs.
- Increase of useable AVMs: The addition of more than 2 million addresses, delivering a 10% increase of useable AVMs available for home loan providers.
- Address identification and linking: More sophisticated methodologies and algorithms, expanding address identification and linking capabilities.
- Data sources: Enhanced data sources, allowing the user to target more recent and accurate property data providing the greatest return.
- Attribute coverage: A boost in property attribute coverage used within the AVM model, offering the user increased accuracy and functionality.
Ongoing drive for AVM performance
All improvements, current and future, are focused on creating an AVM that is more responsive to significant or protracted market upswings and downturns. This aims to ensure the model delivers greater accuracy, whatever the current state of the market.
Reliable data assists lenders in making accurate valuations, faster. Leveraging CoreLogic's AVM to support decision-making, lenders can inform their broader valuation and digital mortgage origination strategies.
Check out the AVM page for more information.