News & Research

CoreLogic launches new model that predicts property listings

CoreLogic Australia has launched Propensity to List, a retention solution which identifies a targeted segment of home loan customers who are highly likely to list their home for sale in the next three months.

Developed to help banks and lenders engage and retain their customers earlier in their decision journey, Propensity to List is a modelled predictive solution powered by insights from CoreLogic’s market leading platforms and comprehensive property data base.

CoreLogic Head of Banking & Finance Solutions, Eugene Vassiliev, said Propensity to List identifies attrition risks early to help retention teams target and engage their customers at high risk of churn before a financial decision is made.

“We know engaging at the right time is one of the greatest retention challenges for banks and lenders,” Mr Vassiliev said.

“Customers that list for sale are both at a very high risk of attrition and an opportunity to retain for the next, likely more substantial, mortgage. However, by the time the property is actually listed for sale, customers would generally have already made up their mind about their future financing needs and the opportunity for the current lender to engage and retain them is lost.

“Propensity to List fills this pre-listing blind spot by identifying customers who are highly likely to list their home for sale within the next three months.”

Analysis of the data showed some diversity in the propensity for more homes to be added to the market across the country.

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said at a macro level, there is a higher likelihood for homes across regional Australia to list for sale over the next three months than capital cities.

“At the end of May, the Propensity to List model showed 2.0% of regional homes were likely to list for sale before the end of August, up from 1.3% a year ago.  A smaller 1.2% of capital city properties were likely to list over the coming months, down from 1.6% a year ago,” Mr Lawless said.

“Across the regional markets, Western Australia stands out with 2.8% of homes likely to list for sale over the coming months, with the council areas of Capel (5.0%), Bunbury (4.7%), Boddington (4.6%) and Port Hedland (4.6%) topping the list with the highest portion of properties likely to list.

“Properties located in the ACT have the highest likelihood to be listed for sale across the capital cities over the coming months, with 2.5% of homes likely to list by August, followed by Perth with 2.0% of properties likely to list.”

Mr Lawless said the flow of fresh listings to the Australian housing market has been tracking below the five-year average since September last year, and low available stock levels are one of the key factors supporting housing values at the moment.

Over the four weeks ending June 25th, the number of capital city listings was tracking -26% below the previous five-year average and the regional listings were -33% below the previous five-year average.

“Even in the current environment of low advertised stock levels amid higher interest rates, we still expect tens of thousands of properties to list in the next couple of months. Despite there being a higher likelihood in percentage terms for regional homes to come onto the market in the next couple of months, by volume 56% of new listings will be capital city homes,” Mr Lawless said.

Every month Propensity to List subscribers will receive a targeted segment of their home loan customers who are likely to list their property for sale in the next three months.

The segment is 60 times more accurate than a random sample.

The model utilises a host of data inputs from CoreLogic’s property data universe, including search and activity data from various platforms, transfers and listings data and market trends data.

“By harnessing the power of property data lenders can fuel smarter property decisions, both for their teams and their customers,” Mr Vassiliev said.

“In a high interest rate environment, customers will hunt for the best deals and an intuitive lender who supports them through their life stages is more likely to retain. Despite lenders’ best efforts, they are often simply engaging too late. Propensity to List identifies at risk customers so lenders can engage with relevant communications to increase their chances of retention when they buy their next property.”

Learn more about Propensity to List


CoreLogic Australia

CoreLogic Australia

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