Monthly Housing & Economic Chart Pack, April 2019

This month’s chart pack has been written by the CoreLogic Research Team. Also included below is a detailed overview on the key findings covered in this month’s report.

Monthly highlights

  • National dwelling values fell for the 17th consecutive month in March 2019 however, the -0.6% monthly fall was the smallest since October 2018.
  • Over the month, combined capital city values fell by -0.7% while the combined regional markets recorded a -0.4% fall.
  • In March 2019, dwelling values were lower across all capital cities except for Canberra where they were unchanged and Hobart where they increased.
  • Over the past year, national dwelling values have fallen by -6.9% which is their largest annual fall since February 2009. Combined capital city dwelling values were -8.2% lower and combined regional market values were -2.1% lower.
  • Over the past year, values have fallen in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Darwin, and increased across the remaining capital cities however, Darwin is the only capital city in which the annual value change over the past year was superior to the change the previous year.
  • Our estimate of settled sales is down 11.3% nationally year on year, Adelaide, Darwin and Canberra were the only capital cities in which sales volumes rose over the year.
  • Rental markets continue to trend lower however, rents do tend to lift at this time of year. National rents were 0.3% higher over the month and 0.4% higher over the past year which was their slowest annual rate of growth on record (data from 2005).
  • Rental yields have continued to lift from their record lows as rental growth outpaces value growth, however yields generally remain well below the long term average in most cities.
  • Vendor metrics have generally softened, with the number of days to sell a property and vendor discounting rates trending higher while auction clearance rates are higher than they were late in 2018 but much lower than a year ago with volumes also much lower.
  • Vendors seem to have got the message that it isn’t a great time to sell, with fewer new listings being added to the market than over recent years, while total advertised stock levels are tracking much higher, due to a slower rate of absorption.
  • The trend in population growth has eased over the twelve months ending September 2018, as both the rate of net overseas migration and the rate of natural increase fell. Slower population growth has a negative implication for housing demand.
  • Dwelling approvals are trending lower and expected to fall further, despite a big rebound in unit approvals in February 2019.
  • Housing finance data and credit aggregates highlight the slowdown in mortgage demand with both owner occupier and investor demand falling. In fact, housing credit growth over the year to February 2019 was at an historic low level.
  • Official interest rates remain at 1.5%, however the expectation from the market is that cuts are more likely than increases from here.

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