Monthly Housing & Economic Chart Pack, January 2019

This month’s chart pack has been written by the CoreLogic Research Team. Also included below is a detailed overview on the key findings covered in this month’s report.

Monthly highlights

  • National dwelling values fell for the 14th consecutive month in December 2018, recording a -1.1% decline which was their largest monthly fall since July 2008. Over the month, combined capital city values fell by -1.3% while the combined regional markets recorded a -0.2% fall.
  • Values increased over the month in Adelaide and Hobart, were unchanged in Canberra and declined elsewhere.
  • Over the past year, national dwelling values have fallen by -4.8% which is their largest annual fall since April 2009. Combined capital city dwelling values were -6.1% lower and combined regional market values were -0.2% lower.
  • Over the past year, values have fallen in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Darwin and increased across the remaining capital cities however, Darwin is the only capital city in which the annual value change in 2018 was superior to the change in 2017.
  • Our estimate of settled sales is down 11.3% nationally year on year, Adelaide and Canberra were the only cities in which sales volumes rose over the year.
  • Rental markets continue to slow, with national rents -0.1% lower over the month and 0.5% higher over the past year.
  • Rental yields have continued to lift from their record lows as rental growth outpaces value growth, however yields generally remain well below the long term average in most cities.
  • Vendor metrics have generally softened, with the number of days to sell a property and vendor discounting rates trending higher while auction clearance rates track lower.
  • Vendors seem to have got the message that it isn’t a great time to sell, with fewer new listings being added to the market than over recent years, while total advertised stock levels are tracking higher due to a slower rate of absorption.
  • The trend in population growth has eased over the twelve months ending June 2018, as both the rate of net overseas migration and the rate of natural increase fell. Slower population growth has a negative implication for housing demand.
  • Dwelling approvals are trending lower, particularly across the unit sector.
  • Housing finance data and credit aggregates highlight the slowdown in investment lending, while owner occupier lending has slowed but remains relatively healthy, rising 6.8% over the 12 months to November 2018 while investor credit has increased at an historically slow rate of 1.1%.
  • Official interest rates remain at 1.5%, however variable mortgage rates have edged higher in both September and October, reflecting out of cycle rises from some lenders.
 

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