Monthly Housing & Economic Chart Pack, July 2019

This month’s chart pack has been written by the CoreLogic Research Team. Also included below is a detailed overview on the key findings covered in this month’s report.

Monthly highlights

  • National dwelling values fell for the 20th consecutive month in June 2019, recording a -0.2% decline. The -0.2% monthly decline was the smallest since April 2018.
  • Over the month, combined capital city values fell by -0.1% while the combined regional markets recorded a -0.1% fall.
  • Values rose over the month in Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart, for Sydney it was the first increase since June 2017 and in Melbourne it was the first increase since November 2017.
  • Over the past year, national dwelling values have fallen by -6.9% which is a slowing rate of decline compared to the previous month.
  • Combined capital city dwelling values were -8.0% lower over the year and combined regional market values were -3.1% lower.
  • Over the past year, values have fallen in all capital cities except for Hobart and Canberra however, each capital city has a lower rate of annual value change over the past year compared to the previous year.
  • Our estimate of settled sales is down -17.5% nationally year on year and transaction volumes are lower across each capital city.
  • Rental markets have been fairly steady, national rents were unchanged over the month and 0.4% higher over the past year which remains their slowest annual rate of growth on record (data from 2005).
  • Rental yields have continued to lift from their record lows as rental growth outpaces value growth, however yields generally remain well below the long term average in most cities.
  • Vendor metrics have generally improved over recent months but are weaker than a year ago with the number of days to sell a property and vendor discounting rates much higher than a year ago while auction clearance rates are now higher than they were a year ago and have increased further since the federal election although volumes also much lower.
  • Vendors seem to have got the message that it isn’t a great time to sell, with fewer new listings being added to the market than over recent years, while total advertised stock levels are tracking higher, due to a slower rate of absorption.
  • The trend in population growth has remained strong over the twelve months ending December 2018, as net overseas migration has been reasonably steady and the rate of natural increase fell.
  • Dwelling approvals are trending lower and expected to fall further, despite a slight increase over the month.
  • Housing finance data and credit aggregates highlight the slowdown in investment lending, while owner occupier lending has slowed but has risen by 5.3% over the 12 months to May 2019 while investor credit has increased at an historically slow rate of 0.5%.
  • Official interest rates were cut to 1.0% in July and to-date the majority of these cuts (although not all) have been passed on to mortgage holders.
 

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