Quarterly growth in combined regional dwelling values continues to outperform the capitals, however, the performance gap has narrowed since the start of the year, according to the latest Cotality Regional Market Update.
The data shows regional dwelling values rose 1.5% in the three months to April, outpacing the 1.0% quarterly rise in the combined capital cities.
While the combined regionals April quarter result marks a 50 basis point increase from the 1.0% lift seen in January, the pace of growth in capital city markets has picked up more sharply over the same period, shifting from a -1.0% decline over the three months to January, to a 1.0% rise in the three months to April.
Cotality Economist, Kaytlin Ezzy, said the data shows a clear convergence in growth trends with regional values remaining positive amid an upswing in the pace of capital city growth.
“We’re also seeing a convergence among the regions with momentum easing in recent high-growth markets and picking up in previously softer regions,” Ms Ezzy said.
The performance gap among Australia’s 50 largest regional significant urban areas (SUAs) has also narrowed. The variance between the strongest and weakest quarterly performers dropped to 7.3% in April, half the 14.7 percentage point difference recorded in July last year.
Western Australia continues to dominate, but Queensland is falling behind
WA dominated the quarterly growth leaderboard, with values in Albany up 7.0% and Geraldton rising 4.5%. South Australia’s Victor Harbour – Goolwa followed closely, increasing 4.2%, while Mildura – Buronga (4.1%) and Mackay (4.0%) rounded out the top five.
“While still taking out one spot in the top five, these results show a weakening of QLD’s grasp on the leaderboard. After dominating throughout 2024, the pace of quarterly growth has eased significantly in QLD’s mining markets amid worsening affordability and global economic uncertainty.”
Despite the softer quarterly results, both QLD and WA continued to dominate the top five spots for annual growth.
Geraldton values surged 26.9% over the year to April, while Gladstone, Townsville, Mackay and Albany all saw annual increases above 20%.
At the other end of the spectrum, Bathurst, Nelson Bay and Geelong recorded mild quarterly declines, with values falling -0.3%, -0.2% and -0.1% respectively. Warrnambool experienced the sharpest decline on an annual basis, with values down -4.2%, followed by Ballarat and Geelong, each falling -2.2%.
Selling conditions reflect annual growth trends
Selling conditions broadly followed the trends in annual growth, with WA and Queensland regions posting the strongest results, and NSW and Victoria reporting some of the weakest.
Rockhampton, Gladstone, Mackay and Townsville recorded the shortest time on market over the past year, recording medians of 11, 12, 13 and 13 days respectively. Sellers in Albany recorded the smallest vendor discounts at -2.3%.
In contrast, affordability pressures and elevated listings weighed on selling conditions in NSW’s Bowral–Mittagong region, where properties spent a median of 77 days on market, and sellers offered the largest discounts at -5.3%. This was followed by Batemans Bay (73 days and -4.6% discount) in NSW and the Traralgon – Morwell region (70 days and -4.3% discount) in VIC.
Rents slow, but regional markets stay ahead
Annual rental growth across regional Australia eased to 5.5% over the year to April, down from the 6.7% recent peak in September, but still nearly double the 2.9% increase recorded in the capital cities.
Ms Ezzy said the easing rental trend is largely driven by affordability challenges, household consolidation, and slower overseas migration.
“Even as growth moderates, we continue to see reasonably strong rental increases across most regional markets, reflecting tight supply and shifting demand patterns,” she said.
Just one SUA, Wagga Wagga, recorded a quarterly decline, with rental values down -0.5%. Albany in WA led rent growth with a 5.7% lift in the quarter, followed by Burnie – Somerset (TAS, 4.4%) and Taree (NSW, 3.9%).
Over the year to April, Albany also posted the highest annual rent growth - up 13.0% or $68 per week - alongside double-digit increases in Geraldton and Victor Harbour – Goolwa.
Key findings – Cotality Quarterly Regional Market Update
- Regional dwelling values rose 1.5% over the quarter, outperforming the 1.0% rise in capital city values.
- Albany (7.0%), Geraldton (4.5%), and the Victor Harbor – Goolwa region (4.2%) were the top performers for quarterly value growth.
- Geraldton recorded the strongest annual value growth, up 26.9% or around $107,000 over the year, while Gladstone, Townsville, Mackay and Albany all saw annual increases above 20%.
- At the other end of the scale, Bathurst was the weakest performer over the quarter, down -0.3%, while Warrnambool saw the largest annual drop with values falling -4.2% over the 12 months to April.
- The annual trend in regional rents continued to moderate over the year to April, with rents up 5.5%, down from the 6.7% rise seen over the 12 months to September.
- Across the largest 50 regional markets, rental growth remains elevated with just one SUA recording a quarterly decline in rents and all 50 seeing rental values increase over the year.
Download the quarterly Cotality Regional Market Update in full online for in-depth insights into the trends shaping regional property markets.
CoreLogic Australia