Monthly Housing & Economic Chart Pack, January 2018
This month’s chart pack has been written by the CoreLogic Research Team. Also included below is a detailed overview on the key findings covered in this month’s report.
2017 was the weakest calendar year for value growth since 2012
- National dwelling values fell by -0.3% in December 2017, their largest monthly fall since February 2016 with combined capital city values falling -0.4% and combined regional market values increasing 0.2%.
- Dwelling values fell in most capital cities in December with values unchanged in Brisbane and rising in Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra.
- Dwelling values were -0.3% lower nationally over the final quarter of 2017, their slowest quarterly rate of growth since April 2016. Combined capital city values fell by -0.5% (their largest decline since April 2016) and regional market values increased 0.5% (their largest increase since July 2017).
- Sydney and Darwin were the only capital cities in which values fell over the quarter however, only Perth and Darwin recorded a stronger change in values over the fourth quarter of the year relative to the third quarter.
- Dwelling values are 4.2% higher over the past year which is less than half the rate of growth recorded in August 2017 and the slowest annual rate of growth since October 2016. Over the past year, values are 4.3% higher across the combined capital cities and 3.8% higher across the combined regional markets.
- Over the year only Hobart have recorded value growth in excess of 10% while values are lower in Perth and Darwin.
Transaction volumes continue to trend lower due to fewer settled sales in the largest capital cities
- It is estimated that there were 471,017 settled sales of dwellings nationally over the 12 months to December 2017 with 296,916 settled sales across the combined capital cities and 175,001 settled sales across regional markets.
- Nationally, the number of settled sales was -4.8% lower over the year with combined capital city sales -6.4% lower and combined regional market sales down -2.2%.
- Transaction volumes have fallen over the past year in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra but are higher across the remaining capital cities.
Rental growth has increased over the past year but has begun to slow over recent months
- Rents are 2.7% higher over the year with capital city rents increasing 2.6% and regional market rents 3.0% higher.
- Rents have increased over the past year in all capital cities except for Perth and Darwin however, the rate of change in rents over the past 12 months has been greater than the 12 month change a year ago in all capital cities except Canberra.
- Gross rental yields were recorded at 3.6% nationally in December 2017; 3.3% across the combined capital cities and 4.9% across the combined regional markets.
- Gross rental yields are lower than they were a year ago across all capital cities except for Sydney and Darwin.
Discounting levels are falling while days on the market has risen from its recent lows
- The typical capital city dwelling which sells for less than its initial list price is being discounted by 5.6% compared to 6.1% 12 months ago.
- The level of discounting is currently lower than it was a year ago in all cities except for Sydney and Darwin.
- The typical capital city dwelling is taking 39 days to sell which is marginally higher than it took a year ago when they took 36 days to sell.
- The days on market figure is higher over the year in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane and is lower elsewhere.
The number of properties advertised for sale is lower than a year ago nationally but higher across the capital cities
- The number of new properties advertised for sale is -7.5% lower than a year ago nationally and -6.0% lower across the combined capital cities.
- Darwin is the only capital cities to currently have a greater number of new listings than they had a year ago.
- Over the past 28 days, total advertised properties were -5.1% lower than a year ago nationally but 3.6% higher across the combined capital cities.
- Brisbane, Perth, Hobart and Darwin were the only capital cities to have fewer total homes advertised for sale currently relative to last year.
- Sydney continues to see a heightened number of properties advertised for sale with the volumes 26.5% higher than a year ago.
Auction clearance rates are substantially lower than levels earlier this year
- Combined capital city auction clearance rates have remained below 65% for the final nine auction weeks of 2017.
- Sydney’s final auction clearance rate has been below 60% for the final 8 auction weeks of the year and were much lower than a year ago.
- Melbourne’s clearance rate has remained below 70% for each of the six final auction weeks of the year and are again much lower than in 2016.
- Earlier in 2017 Sydney and Melbourne have had clearance rates above 80% highlighting a marked slowdown, particularly in Sydney.
Broader economic data also has a significant impact on housing market conditions
- The number of dwellings approved for construction have eased from record-high levels to above the long-term average with approvals lifting over the past three months.
- Population growth remains at high levels however, most of the net overseas migration is occurring in NSW and Vic while net interstate migration remains strong into Vic but is now stronger into Qld.
- Upgraders and investors remain the key drivers of housing demand however, investor demand is slowing and first home buyer demand is lifting, particularly in NSW and Vic on the back of stamp duty concessions available.
- Mortgage rates remain at low levels however, investors are typically paying 60 basis points more on their mortgage than owner occupiers.
Detailed housing and mortgage market statistics