In this week’s Property Pulse we utilise the CoreLogic Home Value Index data across the SA3 geographic level and look at the regions with the largest value gains over the past year and the largest falls. Analysing housing market trends across Statistical Area 3 (SA3) geographies provides a much more granular look at the market, particularly in the smaller states where there are few SA4 regions.
Over the 12 months to November 2018, only 15 SA3 regions nationally have recorded double-digit value growth and 10 of the 15 were in Tasmania. Victoria had three of the 15 and New South Wales and Queensland had one each.
Only 48 SA3 regions recorded value growth of at least 5% over the past year. That means that only 14.3% of SA3 regions nationally recorded an annual rise in dwelling values of 5.0% or more.
The list of the top 50 regions for value growth over the past year is very much dominated by regional areas of Victoria and Tasmanian regions. The list also has a strong slant toward regional areas rather than capital cities. This reflects the fact that as value growth conditions have weakened nationally, the slowdown has been much more rapid across the capital city markets.
The South East Coast region of Tasmania recorded the strongest value growth over the past year. Across the region, dwelling values increased by 16.3% and it was the only SA3 region nationally in which values increased by more than 15% over the past year.
Over the 12 months to November 2018, 23 SA3 regions nationally recorded double-digit value falls. This means that more regions have recorded double-digit falls than those that have recorded double-digit value increases. Over the past 12 months, 55.7% of all SA3 regions nationally recorded value declines.
The list of top 50 regions for value declines over the past year is overwhelmingly dominated by New South Wales with each of the 28 regions in the top 50 located in Sydney. Regions of Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Northern Territory also appear on the list.
Over the past 12 months, the Outback-South region of Queensland has recorded the largest decline in values at -15.6%. It was also the only region in which values have fallen by more than 15% over the past year. The Outback-South region is geographically large and includes the major towns of: Longreach, Charleville and Cunnamulla.
The outlook for the housing market is for further weakness. Although the sharp falls of this year (especially in Sydney) are unlikely to continue at their pace over the next year, it would not be a surprise to see that in 12 months’ time additional SA3 regions across the nation have recorded annual value falls. More affordable regional housing markets with healthy or improving economic and demographic conditions are expected to hold up better in terms of growth than the more expensive and weaker capital city housing markets.