National Dwelling Values Hold Steady in November With Sydney Trending Lower While Perth Bottoms Out

National dwelling values held steady in November, with a 0.1% fall in capital city dwelling values offsetting a 0.2% rise in values across the combined regional markets of Australia, according to CoreLogic’s November Hedonic Home Value Index results.

According to CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless, a significant contributor to the downwards movement over the month came from the Sydney housing market, which recorded a 0.7% fall in dwelling values, while a fall in values was also recorded across Darwin and regional Northern Territory which were both down 0.4% over the month. For the remaining broad regions of Australia, dwelling values were relatively steady, or experienced a subtle rise, over the month.

Index results as at November 30, 2017

2017-12-01--indices


National dwelling values tracked 0.2% higher over the past three months and have increased 5.2% over the twelve months ending November. The national annual growth rate has now halved since reaching a recent peak in May 2017, when dwelling values rose 10.4%.

Conditions remain diverse across the regions  

Mr Lawless said, “The diversity in capital city housing market conditions is highlighted by the rolling quarterly change in dwelling values, which range from a 3.3% rise in Hobart, to a 2.7% decline in Darwin.  However, considering that together these two cities account for less than 1.5% of total housing stock in Australia, they have had little effect on the overall headline figures.”  

He said, “On the other hand, softer housing market conditions across Sydney, which comprises roughly one fifth of national dwelling stock (and approximately one third by value), has a material influence over the headline growth trends.”  

The Sydney housing market moved through a recent peak in July 2017 and dwelling values have been trending lower each month since that time.  Dwelling values were down 0.7% in November to be 1.3% lower relative to the market peak. Sydney’s 1.3% fall over the past three months is the greatest decline over a three month period since March 2016. While the rate of value decline in Sydney has gathered some momentum, it remains extremely modest. 

Mr Lawless believes there is mounting evidence that the Perth housing market may finally have bottomed out. Dwelling values across Perth have edged higher over each of the past three months to record the first rolling quarterly capital gain since late 2014. The three months to November saw Perth dwelling values rise by 0.3%.  In addition to values moving off their low base, settled sales are rising (+3.8% year on year), homes are selling faster (59 days compared with 68 days a year ago) and advertised stock levels have reduced substantially (-12.7% compared with last year). He said, “If this is indeed the start of a recovery phase in the Perth housing market, it comes after dwelling values have fallen 10.8% since peaking in mid-2014.”